Roosters v Rabbitohs

NRL Round 26 Preview: Roosters v Rabbitohs

Sydney Roosters v South Sydney Rabbitohs
7.45pm, Thursday, September 4
Allianz Stadium

Last season these two teams finished the year playing off for the minor premiership in the final round. They will again play for the right to go top of the premiership – and potentially claim the minor premiership if Manly fall to North Queensland – in Round 26 this year in a monster Thursday game at Allianz Stadium. The biggest rivalry in Rugby League just got bigger.

Selection Notes
The Roosters have lost Jake Friend – likely for the remainder of the year – with Mitch Aubusson to start in the No.9 and Heath L’Estrange coming back on the bench. Remi Casty comes in fro Frank-Paul Nu’uausala. South Sydney have lost Adam Reynolds to suspension but welcome back John Sutton from injury. Sutton starts at five-eighth with Keary to play halfback. Issac Luke beat a judiciary charge and will play. Chris McQueen is under an injury cloud with Joe Picker on standby.

History
The longest rivalry in premiership history that dates back to 1908, the Roosters-Rabbitohs have been evenly matched of late with the last 12 matches split right down the middle. The two teams met in Round 1 and the Bunnies walloped the Roosters 28-8 at ANZ. Neither team has swept the other in a single year since 2010. The last seven have all tallied more than 36 points. Souths have won the last two clashes at the SFS.

Form
These two sit second and third on the ladder with both having a chance to go to first with a win. There is almost nothing between these teams. Both hold a 15-8 record with the Bunnies holding a +228 differential compared to the Roosters’ +226. The Roosters have the best attack and second best defence. The Rabbitohs have the best attack and second best defence. The Roosters have won their last five and hit this off a 24-12 win against Melbourne. The Chooks have won eight of their last nine at the SFS with all wins by eight-plus. Against Top 8 teams the Roosters are 5-5. Souths have won six of their last seven with their last two being a loss to the Cowboys and a close win over Canterbury. They have won 10 of their last 11 away from ANZ while they are 6-5 against Top 8 teams this year.

Key Matchup
There are so many great matchups in this clash but the pick has to be fiery middle forwards Sam Burgess and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. Two of the most fierce and furious forwards in the game, both run like they have been shot out of a rocket. Each set the tempo for their team while laying a platform for their backline. Burgess has been playing stronger footy but Warea-Hargreaves always steps up for the big affairs and will be steaming for this.

Stats That Matter
The Sydney Roosters have won both of their matches without Jake Friend over the last three seasons while this is the first match Adam Reynolds will miss since debuting in 2012. When favoured by less than a converted try at Allianz, the Roosters are 7-3 straight and ATS with an 8-2 under record over the last three seasons. As a favourite at the ground, they are 22-7 with an 18-11 ATS number  while they are 7-0 straight and ATS on a five-day backup. Souths are 3-6 straight and ATS as a road underdog over the last three years, averaging a loss of 10 points. The Bunnies are 8-1 straight and ATS with an 8-1 under record in their last nine getting a start of 4 points or less. The Roosters are 3-3 straight and 2-4 ATS off five straight wins.

Final Thoughts
What a fantastic game to kick off the final round of the 2014 regular season and one with huge implications with the winner to go top and potentially claim the minor premiership if Manly stumble. There is a small lean Souths here though but only because the loss of Jake Friend seems more important than the loss of Adam Reynolds. Friend is such a critical part of the Roosters both with the ball and without and his absence will be felt. Souths also look to be playing with a harder edge, which is critical at this time of year. The top bet in this one though is the unders. With two spine players out, so much on the line, the top two defences in the NRL, it is hard to see this game tipping over 37.5.

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